American Samizdat

Sunday, May 01, 2005. *
"The United States, Europe and Japan increasingly will be forced to compete [for oil] with developing nations, especially China and India, the world's two fastest-growing major economies, which account for more than one-third of the world's population...

"The developing world's growing appetite for oil is one reason gasoline prices have shot up for Americans. Over time, these emerging economies also will shape not just global oil flows and prices, but also world events, said Anne Korin, the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, an energy security think tank in Washington...

world oil supply

"For now, the United States remains well-positioned, at least when it comes to energy supplies. The proven reserves in the Middle East make it the expected primary global supplier of crude oil. Iraq, where the United States has forcefully established a beachhead, has proven oil reserves of between 78 billion and 112 billion barrels. [The obvious reason for the US invasion of Iraq, though many still want to wail about freedom, tyranny and terrorism, all of which are distractions and catchwords to rationalize market-driven, machine-centric, military domination. --Ed.]

"The scramble to find and develop new oil fields and natural-gas wells will occur in places such as eastern Siberia and West Africa, as hungry nations hedge their bets should leading producers such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq falter...

"China and India are investing billions in Iran despite President Bush's attempt to isolate the Persian Gulf nation because of its nuclear ambitions. [Meanwhile, North Korea continues to develop its method-acting role as the nuclear gunslinger. -- Ed.] The money is a lifeline for the world's fourth-biggest oil producer, which also sits atop the world's second-largest natural-gas reserves. Both are off-limits to U.S. companies [Refer to paragraph above about Iraq].

"Iran — China's largest oil supplier — signed long-term oil and natural-gas contracts this year worth tens of billions of dollars with China and India. Iran gave India's state oil company a 20 percent stake in the development of a key Iranian oil field...China, the world's fastest-growing economy, also is making heavy diplomatic and energy investments in Africa. It needs to: China is projected to consume within 20 years what the U.S. consumes today: 21 million barrels a day...

India, which has almost none of its own oil, is equally hungry. The federal Energy Information Administration expects India to more than double its oil consumption to 5.3 million barrels a day by 2025...

In economic terms, it doesn't hurt the United States when developing countries promote oil drilling, extraction and production. That increases world supply, slakes demand and drives down prices. But access to ample energy is a prerequisite to world power."

And Power -- not money, not respect, not even security
-- is the prize in the game that these men are playing.



But let's go back to petroleum:

"'How long will oil last?' The short answer is no-one knows, but even the oil industry suspects the world peak is now approaching.

"The industry says it has 40 years of proven reserves at the moment -- but it also said that 30 years ago."

how long will oil last?


From "The Long Emergency," by James Howard Kunstler:

"The term 'global oil-production peak' means that a turning point will come when the world produces the most oil it will ever produce in a given year and, after that, yearly production will inexorably decline. It is usually represented graphically in a bell curve. The peak is the top of the curve, the halfway point of the world's all-time total endowment, meaning half the world's oil will be left.

That seems like a lot of oil, and it is, but there's a big catch: It's the half that is much more difficult to extract, far more costly to get, of much poorer quality, and located mostly in places where the people hate us. A substantial amount of it will never be extracted."


And finally:

"Want to reduce the nation's dependence on foreign oil? Hang out your laundry."





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